Poland’s GDP unlikely to decline in 2009

Unlike almost every other EU country, Poland’s GDP is unlikely to decline in 2009.

Recently I have been looking at the forecasts for Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria and only Poland is forecast to be in the black!

The GDP in Czech Republic and Slovakia is forecast to drop by about 3 to 4% in 2009, whilst the forecasts are that the GDP in   Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria will drop by between 7 and 8.5%.

Talking with my business friends in Poland, I find that in reality business is certainly not declining, though it is not increasing at the same rate it was in the last few years. The property market has, however, dropped.

What can we learn from this? Well, from my experience, I know that the management of banks in Poland learned a lot from their disasterous lending policies in the early 1990’s and they have maintained their cautious lending policies throughout the boom years since then.

If only UK and US bankers had applied the same policies in the last few years, perhaps the world economy would be more like that of Poland in 2009?

Copyright ©2009 Nigel Adams

Author: Professor Nigel Adams

Nigel is a Professor & the first Director of the Buckingham Enterprise & Innovation Unit (http://www.beiu.co.uk) part of the Vinson Centre (http://www.vinsoncentre.com) at the University of Buckingham He also teaches, advises and mentors undergraduate students taking the innovative two year (8 term) BSc in Business Enterprise (http://bit.ly/bbe_home1) and post-graduate students taking the MSc in Entrepreneurial Consultancy in Practice (MECP) Programme (http://bit.ly/mecp_home). This masters programme develops business consultants who are able to advise business owners how to successfully grow their businesses. BBE one of only a few similar honours degree programmes in the world which offer undergraduate students the opportunity to study for a degree in Business Enterprise, whilst also starting & developing a business. These types of degree are called Venture Creation Programmes (www.vcplist.com) , Within 4 months of starting the programme students must pitch for seed-corn capital from "Buckingham Angels". Nigel also teaches Entrepreneurship to other students at the University of Buckingham and advises and mentors university students and staff and local people who want to start business or grow their businesses. Between 2002 and 2011, Nigel was Managing Director of Nigel Adams & Company Ltd, providing business, management, international marketing, recruitment and other support and advice to the management of Western companies to help them establish business operations in Central & Eastern Europe & to improve their sales. Nigel is an experienced international business adviser with more than 40 years experience in business, enterprise, management, marketing & counter-trade. He was based in Poland from 1993 until 2002, working on Polish state company restructuring projects as a British Government Know How Fund Management Adviser. Nigel is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Marketing (CIM) & a Chartered Marketer.