Unlike almost every other EU country, Poland’s GDP is unlikely to decline in 2009.
Recently I have been looking at the forecasts for Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria and only Poland is forecast to be in the black!
The GDP in Czech Republic and Slovakia is forecast to drop by about 3 to 4% in 2009, whilst the forecasts are that the GDP in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria will drop by between 7 and 8.5%.
Talking with my business friends in Poland, I find that in reality business is certainly not declining, though it is not increasing at the same rate it was in the last few years. The property market has, however, dropped.
What can we learn from this? Well, from my experience, I know that the management of banks in Poland learned a lot from their disasterous lending policies in the early 1990’s and they have maintained their cautious lending policies throughout the boom years since then.
If only UK and US bankers had applied the same policies in the last few years, perhaps the world economy would be more like that of Poland in 2009?
Copyright ©2009 Nigel Adams